Flooding continues in New South Wales with three dead, 50 000 residents cut off

A slow-moving low-pressure trough, fueled by warm Tasman Sea temperatures and persistent humid onshore winds, has produced days of intense rainfall across eastern Australia, triggering widespread flooding in New South Wales.

As of Thursday, May 22, the floods have resulted in three confirmed fatalities, one missing person, and the isolation of approximately 50 000 residents. Severe impacts have been reported in rural towns across the Hunter and Mid North Coast regions, where additional heavy rainfall was forecast through Thursday and into Friday.

Authorities found the body of a 63-year-old man inside a flooded house on North Moto Road in Moto. In Rosewood, Mid-North Coast, rescuers recovered the body of a man in his 30s who had been reported missing.

West of Coffs Harbour, a 60-year-old woman was found deceased in her car near Brooklana after attempting to drive through floodwaters. She had called for assistance when trapped, but emergency crews were unable to reach her in time.

A search is underway for a 49-year-old man who disappeared after setting out on foot near a flood-affected road in Nymboida.

Already flooded communities record soaring totals

In a typical May, the Mid North Coast and Hunter regions of New South Wales receive around 50 to 150 mm (2 to 5.9 inches) of rainfall. However, this week, some areas recorded over 500 mm (19.7 inches) in just three days and more than 300 mm (11.8 inches) within a 24-hour period, WeatherZone’s Ben Domensino reports.

Rainfall over the past few days has been so intense that several locations surpassed their previous May monthly records within just 72 hours, Domasino continues.

Mount Seaview recorded 614.2 mm (24.2 inches) during the 72 hours ending at 09:00 on Thursday, more than four times its May monthly average. This three-day total exceeded the site’s previous May record of 558.2 mm (22 inches) set in 1980, with observations dating back to 1949.

More than 10 rain gauges across eastern New South Wales registered over 500 mm (19.7 inches) of rain between Monday morning and Thursday morning. These included Taree Airport, Mount Barrington, Mooral Creek, Comboyne Public School, and Mount Seaview. This marks the first time on record that Taree has exceeded 500 mm in May, with data going back to 1882.

As of 21:30 local time on May 22, significant rainfall totals were recorded across several towns in New South Wales. Coffs Harbour received 155 mm (6.10 inches), Port Macquarie 67.2 mm (2.65 inches), Taree 87 mm (3.43 inches), Woolgoolga 154.2 mm (6.07 inches), Sawtell 154.2 mm (6.07 inches), and Dorrigo 136 mm (5.35 inches).

Macleay and Manning rivers swell

The Macleay River is experiencing significant flooding across multiple locations, with levels rising or remaining critically high. At Georges Creek, water levels reached 9.96 m (32.68 feet), with forecasts suggesting a rise above the major flood level of 10.00 m (32.81 feet), peaking near 10.20 m (33.46 feet) overnight.

At Bellbrook, levels temporarily dropped to 10.21 m (33.50 feet) but were forecast to rise again to 10.50 m (34.45 feet) by late Thursday or early Friday. In Kempsey, the river stood at 7.11 m (23.33 feet), exceeding the major flood level of 6.60 m (21.65 feet).

The Manning River remained elevated. At Wingham, levels reached 10.80 m (35.43 feet), surpassing the moderate flood level of 8.90 m (29.20 feet). At Croki Wharf, the river held at 2.90 m (9.51 feet), above the minor flood threshold of 1.50 m (4.92 feet). Some relief was noted in Taree and Harrington, where levels were receding.

Rescue efforts intensify with 48 000 stranded

By Thursday afternoon, flood conditions had left approximately 48 000 people isolated. Authorities were managing 150 flood-related alerts across the state, including 37 emergency warnings and 86 under active monitoring.

The State Emergency Service (SES) had conducted 591 rescues, supported by 2 500 personnel. More than 4 600 calls for assistance had been logged.

Areas most affected by major flooding included Manning, Paterson, Hastings, Williams, Nambucca, and Glenthorne.

A total of 15 evacuation centres were established in Dungog, Gloucester, Taree, Manning Point, Wingham, Bulahdelah, Tuncurry, Kempsey, Port Macquarie, Coffs Harbour, Sawtell, Nambucca, Old Bar, Wauchope, and Coopernook.

Storm to dump more rain before easing

More flash flooding is expected as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) warns some areas could receive up to 200 mm (7.87 inches) of rain by Friday. The system is then forecast to weaken as it moves south toward Sydney.

Domensino said that this week’s heavy rainfall over eastern New South Wales was primarily caused by a near-stationary low pressure trough interacting with a stagnant pool of cold air in the upper atmosphere and a continuous stream of moisture-laden onshore winds. This combination created an ideal setup for prolonged and intense rainfall over the region.

A broad area of cold upper-level air had been sitting over New South Wales since the start of the week. This cold air enhanced what meteorologists refer to as upper-level forcing, which helped deepen the low pressure trough near the surface and intensified convective activity, the process that forms clouds in rising air. Because the trough barely moved over four days, rain remained concentrated over the Mid North Coast and Hunter regions, leading to exceptional rainfall totals in localized areas.

The onshore winds that fed this system extended through a deep layer of the atmosphere, supplying a continuous stream of moisture to the developing rain clouds. In addition, above-average sea surface temperatures in the Tasman Sea contributed extra atmospheric moisture, increasing the volume of water available to fall as rain.

Importantly, the ground across eastern New South Wales was already saturated before this event began. The combination of heavy rain falling on wet soils led to rapid runoff and exacerbated both the extent and severity of flooding across the region.

References:

¹ Why is NSW so wet and when will the rain stop? – weatherzone – May 22, 2025

² Three dead in Australia after torrential rain ravages rural towns – Reuters – May 22, 2025