Life-threatening flash floods expected in Tennessee and Kentucky as storms sweep through much of the U.S.

A low-pressure system is moving out of the western U.S. into the central Plains, while a high-pressure system carrying cold air from Canada is moving southward. These systems will interact to form a strong cyclone that will track northeast across the eastern U.S., bringing potentially hazardous weather through the weekend.

Severe storms are expected in the Southeast from Saturday night into Sunday, February 15 – 16, affecting areas from East Texas through much of the Southeast and parts of the mid-South. The primary threats include damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

Flash flooding will be a significant risk from the lower to mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley, with the threat extending into the Ohio Valley. Southern West Virginia and western Virginia are also likely to experience flooding.

Strong atmospheric dynamics interacting with abundant moisture along a warm front will generate intense thunderstorms, producing rainfall rates of 25 – 50 mm (1 – 2 inches) per hour. These storms will expand in coverage through Saturday, with total rainfall expected to reach 75 – 150 mm (3 – 6 inches), and isolated areas potentially receiving up to 200 mm (8 inches).

Flood watches have been issued for more than 10 states, from Arkansas to Pennsylvania. Moderate to isolated major river flooding is possible this weekend in central and eastern Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and northern and central Tennessee as regional watersheds respond to excessive rainfall and runoff.

Northwestern Tennessee and western Kentucky face the highest risk of life-threatening flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a High-Risk Warning for excessive rainfall in these areas, which are expected to experience the most severe flooding.

A broader area from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley is under a “Moderate Risk,” while regions extending eastward toward the Appalachians face a “Slight Risk” of flash flooding.

The lower Mississippi Valley is expected to experience severe weather, with the SPC issuing an Enhanced Risk warning for flooding. Supercell thunderstorms ahead of the cold front may also produce tornadoes in the region.

As the cold front advances, damaging winds and tornadoes may develop, extending into the Southeast. On Sunday, the system will shift eastward, bringing rain and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, with some flash flooding possible in the southern Mid-Atlantic.

A significant snowstorm is moving from the upper Midwest to the Great Lakes on Saturday, with winter weather advisories issued for expected snow accumulations of 8 – 15 cm (3 – 6 inches).

Some areas may experience a mix of rain and snow. As the storm intensifies, heavier snowfall is expected in upstate New York and northern New England from late Saturday into Sunday.

Cities expected to receive significant snowfall include Minneapolis; Des Moines, Iowa; Chicago; Detroit; Cleveland; Buffalo and Albany, New York; Burlington, Vermont; Boston and Worcester, Massachusetts; Manchester, New Hampshire; and Portland and Augusta, Maine.

New York and central New England are expected to receive the heaviest snowfall, with accumulations exceeding 30 cm (12 inches) in some areas.

Snow is also expected to accumulate along Interstate 70 in the Midwest and parts of western Pennsylvania, as well as along much of I-80 in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

Strong winds associated with the storm could lead to blowing snow, making travel hazardous. Moderate snowfall is expected in higher elevations of the Appalachians.

A wintry mix, expected to transition to rain at the storm’s peak, will extend along and south of I-84 and I-86 in New York and the Connecticut and Massachusetts Turnpikes in New England. Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C., will primarily experience rain.

By Monday morning, the storm will move east of New England, reducing snowfall in that region. However, colder air will generate additional lake-effect snow in areas downwind of the Great Lakes.

Strong winds, with gusts ranging from 65 – 105 km/h (40 – 65 mph), are expected to develop across the Southeast on Saturday, spreading into the Northeast on Sunday and continuing into Monday. These prolonged winds could cause significant damage, including downed trees and power outages.

References:

¹ Short Range Forecast Discussion – NWS/WPC – February 15, 2025