Heightened risk of debris flows in areas affected by recent wildfires in Los Angeles, California
Southern California is bracing for a weekend storm that could cause flash flooding and landslides in areas scarred by January’s wildfires, with rain and snow expected to bring relief but also new risks.
Image credit: LACoFD
- Southern California is forecast to experience much-needed rain and cooler temperatures this weekend, but burn scars from recent wildfires are at risk of flash flooding and landslides.
- While damaging debris flows are not the most likely outcome, there is a lot of uncertainty with this storm. The threat is high enough to prepare for the worst-case scenario.
- The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued a marginal flooding risk warning for the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges on January 26 – 27, with the heaviest rainfall expected directly over wildfire burn scars.
- Moderate snow is predicted for the central and southern Sierra Nevada and the highest elevations of Southern California, signaling a shift to winter weather conditions.
The weekend is forecast to bring much-needed relief to Southern California after wildfires burned through significant areas in January.
According to the National Weather Service (NWS), a cold storm is expected to move over the region this weekend, bringing rain across Southern California.
The heaviest showers are expected directly over burn scars on Sunday and Monday, January 26 – 27, potentially increasing the risk of flash flooding and landslides. Small hail and isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
The NWS has issued a marginal flooding risk warning for the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges on Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions are expected to return by Tuesday, January 28. A Flood Watch will remain in effect till Monday for select burn areas in the region.
This storm system is also expected to produce moderate snow accumulation in the central and southern Sierra Nevada, as well as in the highest elevations of Southern California.
Dry but cool conditions are expected starting Tuesday, with the possibility of a weaker storm system impacting the region later in the week.
Five wildfires are currently burning across California, with the largest being the Palisades and Eaton Fires, both active in Los Angeles County since early January.
The Palisades Fire has burned approximately 9 500 ha (23 500 acres) and is 84% contained, while the Eaton Fire has burned over 5 660 ha (14 000 acres) and is 95% contained.
The Hughes Fire, which ignited in Los Angeles County on Wednesday, January 22, has burned 4 250 ha (10 500 acres) and is about 90% contained.
The Border 2 Fire, which started in San Diego County on Thursday, January 23, has burned over 2 670 ha (6 600 acres) and is 10 % contained. Meanwhile, the Laguna Fire, which started in Ventura County the same day, has burned 34 ha (83 acres) and is 98 % contained.
References:
1 Short Range Public Discussion – NWS/WPC – January 26, 2025
2 Areas forecast discussion – NWS – January 25, 2024
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Pray for the innocent people that live & travel in the paths of the fire’s aftermath.
FYI — Worst of SoCal rainstorm set to hit Sunday and Monday. What you need to know —
— EXCERPT — Timing
– Forecasters with the weather service issued a flood watch for the burned areas of the recent L.A. County fires for the time period of highest risk — from 10 a.m. Sunday through 4 p.m. Monday.
– By 3 p.m. Sunday, a handful of locations in western Los Angeles County had received half an inch of rain, according to the weather service. Downtown Los Angeles received .32 inches of rain. There were also reports of streets flooding in the L.A. area due to clogged drains.
– “We still have some showers coming up from the south,” said Carol Smith, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. “More is on the way.”
– Sunday night will be the period of particularly high concern, officials said.
– This is “a slow moving storm, so it’s going to be stubborn. It’s going to hang around,” said Alex Tardy, meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in San Diego. “It’s going to send waves of moisture through Monday. So I think that’s really going to add up to significant rain and snow.” –
— LA Times – By Rong-Gong Lin II, Alex Wigglesworth and Melody Gutierrez
Jan. 26, 2025 Updated 3:48 PM PT
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