Typhoon “Kong-rey” rapidly intensifying as it moves toward Taiwan

At 09:00 UTC on October 29, 2024, the center of Typhoon “Kong-rey” was located 1 040 km (646 miles) southeast of Taipei, Taiwan.

The system had maximum sustained winds of 148 km/h (92 mph) and was moving west-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph).

Kong-rey is undergoing rapid intensification and is forecast to bring severe conditions to the region.

Satellite data shows that Kong-rey’s structure has rapidly improved over the last six hours, with increasingly symmetrical organization and the formation of a large, ragged eye, JTWC forecasters said.

Environmental factors are highly conducive to further intensification, including strong radial outflow, low vertical wind shear of 9 – 18 km/h (6 – 11 mph), and sea surface temperatures ranging from 29 to 30 °C (84 to 86 °F).

Kong-rey is forecast to maintain its northwestern trajectory, guided by a deep-layered subtropical ridge positioned to the east and northeast.

This path is expected to lead Kong-rey to make landfall on Taiwan’s southeastern coast between 48 and 60 hours from now.

Following landfall, the typhoon will likely enter the Taiwan Strait, where interaction with Taiwan’s terrain is expected to reduce its strength, potentially downgrading wind speeds to approximately 120 km/h (75 mph).

After moving through the strait, the storm is projected to turn northeastward, transitioning into an extratropical cyclone as it encounters cooler waters and increased wind shear, with further weakening anticipated.

Forecast models indicate strong agreement regarding the typhoon’s path over the next 72 hours.

After this period, model variations increase, particularly regarding how Kong-rey will interact with Eastern China and a nearby jet stream.

A slower progression is suggested by the ECMWF model, which predicts more interaction with land, while the JTWC’s forecast aligns with the multi-model consensus, suggesting Kong-rey will skirt along China’s coast before weakening significantly.

Kong-rey’s peak intensity is expected to reach 231 km/h (143 mph) within the next 36 hours, supported by highly favorable environmental conditions.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) issued a public advisory at 03:00 UTC today, confirming that Kong-rey (known locally as Leon) has intensified into a typhoon while positioned east of Cagayan. The agency warns of significant hazards to land areas, with wind and rainfall impacts expected to intensify over the coming days.

In terms of wind severity, PAGASA has activated Wind Signals to alert communities about potential wind impacts. Areas under Wind Signal No. 2 may experience gale-force winds with minor to moderate effects, while those under Wind Signal No. 1 could encounter minimal impacts from strong winds. The highest Wind Signal expected is No. 3 or 4, especially over Batanes and the Babuyan Islands. The possibility of Wind Signal No. 5 has also been indicated.

Gusty conditions with winds ranging from strong to gale force are likely beyond the Wind Signal areas.

Gusty conditions with strong to gale-force winds are expected in Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, the Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Camiguin on October 29.

By October 30, these conditions will persist in Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, the Bicol Region, most of Visayas, and the Dinagat Islands.

On October 31, affected areas will shift to include Aurora, Quezon, MIMAROPA, the Bicol Region, Dinagat Islands, and again the Bicol Region.

A moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge is predicted over low-lying and exposed coastal areas of Batanes and Babuyan Islands within the next 48 hours.

A Gale Warning remains in effect for the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central and Southern Luzon, signaling highly hazardous maritime conditions.

Seas are expected to be rough to very rough, with wave heights reaching up to 10 m (33 feet) along the seaboards of Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and northeastern mainland Cagayan.

Waves up to 8 m (26 feet) are expected on the eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan, while wave heights of up to 7 m (23 feet) are anticipated along the seaboard of Isabela and northern mainland Cagayan.

The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte may see waves up to 6 m (20 feet), and the northern seaboard of Aurora and Catanduanes could experience waves up to 4.5 m (15 feet).

The PAGASA advises all vessels, including small boats, to remain in port or seek safe harbor.

Kong-rey is projected to move west-northwestward today before turning northwestward tomorrow. The closest approach to Batanes is predicted between early Thursday morning and midday, October 31 (LT). A shift westward could lead to a direct landfall on Batanes.

References:

¹ Typhoon 23W (Kong-rey) Warning #18 – JTWC – Valid 09:00 UTC on October 29, 2024

² Typhoon “Kong-rey” Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11 – PAGASA – Issued at 03:00 UTC on October 29, 2024