South Sudan warns of widespread floods as Lake Victoria hits 128-year high

South Sudan braces for the worst floods in 60 years predicted to affect an area of ~65 000 km² ( 25 000 mi²) and cause a famine affecting approximately 9 million people between June 2024 and January 2025.

• The predicted famine is partly driven by a major flooding event, which is expected to exceed the floods of 2020 and 2022.
• Current water levels in Lake Victoria have reached a 128-year high in May 2024. Lake Victoria is a significant source of the Nile River, which runs through Uganda, South Sudan, Sudan, and Egypt before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea.
• The government of South Sudan issued a warning that water released from the lake will flood vast parts of the country in the latter part of 2024.

Ugandan Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Pal Mai Deng, reported in May that Lake Victoria’s water level has risen to 13.6 m (44.6 feet), the highest in 128 years in the Nile Basin. This surge has increased water levels at the Jinja Dam in Uganda, exceeding its capacity.

“The high water levels are overwhelming Jinja Dam’s capacity,” Deng said in a statement. “Uganda is forced to release a massive 2 600 m³ (91 823 ft³) of water per second downstream into South Sudan.”

Deng warned the unusual water release could trigger floods exceeding those experienced in 2019, 2021, and 2022.

Today, South Sudan is bracing for a severe human and climate disaster as the country anticipates its worst floods in 60 years, potentially pushing parts of the nation to the brink of famine, according to Save the Children.

The child rights organization issued a warning about a devastating large-scale hunger crisis among children in South Sudan. This alert follows new data released by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), indicating that massive floods will increase the risk of famine from June 2024 until January 2025.

Regions expected to be most affected have already been struggling with years of conflict, hunger, rising food prices, previous floods, and a recent influx of refugees from the 15-month conflict in Sudan.

Despite a peace deal in 2018, South Sudan continues to experience one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. Approximately 9 million people—about 75% of the population, including nearly 5 million children—require humanitarian assistance.

Unity State, a low-lying and flood-prone region in the central northern part of the country, is particularly vulnerable to famine. The last formal declaration of famine was in parts of Unity State in February 2017, where nearly 80,000 people faced famine conditions, and mass deaths were only averted by a rapid and effective aid response.

The predicted famine is partly driven by a major flooding event expected to surpass the floods of 2020 and 2022.

The government of South Sudan has warned that water released from the Lake Victoria will flood vast parts of the country later in 2024.

FEWS NET estimates that the flooded area could exceed 65 000 km² ( 25 000 mi²)—the equivalent of Sri Lanka’s entire land area.

Pornpun Jib Rabiltossaporn, Save the Children South Sudan Country Director, said a horror scenario is unfolding in South Sudan.

“While floods are part of life for families in much of the country, we are seeing a situation where the floods will be so extreme, over such vast patches of land, that entire communities will be marooned from assistance. In some villages, families won’t be able to travel the distance required by boat to search for food, or an income, for months.

“With already extreme levels of hunger and malnutrition in children across South Sudan, and a massive conflict over the border forcing hundreds of thousands of people into crowded refugee camps, in all likelihood we will see children start to die from hunger-related illnesses as the flooding takes hold.

“Save the Children is urgently finalizing its flood anticipatory and response plan, prepping communities and prioritizing the most vulnerable high-risk locations. However, the alarm isn’t being heard widely enough. There is an imminent disaster threatening communities in South Sudan. Unless there is an urgent scaling up of funding for preparation work, the upcoming floods are guaranteed to wreak havoc. We are going to see a large number of homes destroyed, roads and low-lying settlements flooded, and monumental levels of hunger.”

Flooding in Unity State is projected to affect other vulnerable areas, including Jonglei, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Upper Nile, and Warrap states. These regions are already suffering from previous floods, conflict, displacement, food insecurity, and the influx of refugees from Sudan.

FEWS NET predicts that emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes will expand to 41 counties from June to September, with some households entering Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Areas of highest concern include northern counties bordering Sudan, regions within the Sudd wetlands, and hard-to-reach areas of the Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) and Jnglei.

FEWS NET warns of a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in South Sudan from June onward, particularly in north-central Unity and other low-lying, flood-prone counties in the Sudd wetland area and river basins. If severe flooding combined with conflict isolates households from accessing food and income sources or assistance for an extended period, Famine (IPC Phase 5) could occur during the June 2024 to January 2025 projection period.

References:

¹ SOUTH SUDAN ON THE BRINK OF FAMINE AS IT BRACES FOR WORST FLOODS IN 60 YEARS – Save The Children – July 10, 2024

² South Sudan: Food Security Outlook, June 2024 – January 2025: Forecasted severe flooding elevates the risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in flood-prone areas – ReliefWeb – July 10, 2024

³ Today’s top news: Occupied Palestinian Territory, Haiti, South Sudan, Ukraine – UNOCHA – July 10, 2024

⁴ South Sudan braces for severe flooding as Lake Victoria hits record high – Sudans Post – May 14, 2024