Antarctica sees ice gain after two decades of decline
Antarctica has shown a rare shift in behavior, gaining ice mass between 2021 and 2023 after years of steady decline. Using satellite gravimetry, researchers tracked this anomaly and linked it to unusual precipitation rather than long-term change. The findings offer insight into the continent’s sensitivity, but little certainty about what comes next.
Iceberg B-46 breaks away from Pine Island Glacier, captured during NASA’s Operation IceBridge flight. Credit: Brooke Medley, NASA
Using satellite observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-FO (GRACE Follow-On), a team at Tongji University has identified significant changes in Antarctic ice mass. Led by Dr. Wei Wang and Prof. Yunzhong Shen, the researchers detail these patterns in a study published in Science China Earth Sciences.
The study reports that the Antarctic Ice Sheet experienced a net mass gain between 2021 and 2023. This shift follows more than two decades of satellite gravimetry observations that documented accelerating ice loss, particularly across key glacier regions in East Antarctica.
Phases of Antarctic ice mass change
The researchers have broken down the Antarctic ice mass changes since 2002 into three phases, each showing a clear shift in behavior:
- 2002–2010: In this period, global sea levels rose by 0.20±0.16 mm (0.0079 ± 0.0063 inches) per year due to moderate ice loss from Antarctica, which occurred at a rate of -73.79±56.27 gigatonnes annually.
- 2011-2020: During this time, the global sea levels increased by 0.39±0.15 mm (0.015 ± 0.0059 inches) annually. This was driven by a near doubling of ice loss at -142.06±56.12 gigatonnes per year.
- 2021-2023: This recent era saw the global sea level rise offset by 0.30±0.21 mm (0.0118 ± 0.0083 inches) annually, as Antarctica experienced a net mass gain of 107.79±74.90 gigatonnes per year, contrary to the long-term trend.
Despite this temporary increase, the researchers note that the highest contribution to global sea level rise from Antarctica occurred in February 2020, reaching 5.99±0.43 mm (0.236±0.017 inches), before slightly dropping to 5.10±0.52 mm (0.201±0.020 inches) by the close of 2023.
From 2011 to 2020, the Totten, Moscow University, Denman, and Vincennes Bay basins in the Wilkes Land-Queen Mary Land (WL-QML) region saw a sharp rise in ice loss.
The rate reached 47.64 ± 8.14 gigatonnes per year, higher than during 2002–2010. The affected area also extended farther inland. Researchers found that 72.53% of the increased loss came from reduced surface mass, while 27.47% was due to stronger ice discharge.
References:
1 Spatiotemporal mass change rate analysis from 2002 to 2023 over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and four glacier basins in Wilkes-Queen Mary Land – Sci. China Earth Sci. – Wang, W., Shen, Y., Chen, Q. et al. – DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-024-1517-1
2 Antarctic Ice Sheet Records Surprising Mass Gain After Decade of Accelerated Loss – Science China – May 4, 2025
My passions include trying my best to save a dying planet, be it through carpooling or by spreading awareness about it. Research comes naturally to me, complemented by a keen interest in writing and journalism. Guided by a curious mind and a drive to look beyond the surface, I strive to bring thoughtful attention and clarity to subjects across Earth, sciences, environment, and everything in between.
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