G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm watch in effect

A G1-minor geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for January 31 and February 1 due to the influence of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) and the possible arrival of a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with a Type II radio sweep off the west limb around 08:06 UTC on January 28.

“Confidence in the arrival of this CME is low as model results suggest arrival late January 31 and into February 1, which coincides with the arrival of the high speed stream associated with the large midlatitude, positive polarity coronal holes,” Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) forecasters said.

There may be a slight disturbance in the magnetic field as that cloud moves through, but it could be difficult to separate from the influence of the HSS.

The most notable effects will be from the high speed stream from the positive polarity coronal hole that is expected to become fully geoeffective on February 1. Active conditions are likely during this time.

Under G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm conditions, weak fluctuations in power grids may occur, though they typically do not cause widespread disruptions. Satellite operations could experience minor impacts, such as increased drag on low-Earth orbit satellites or slight adjustments in onboard systems.

Migratory animals that rely on Earth’s magnetic field for navigation may also be affected, potentially altering their movement patterns. Additionally, auroras become more visible at high latitudes, including northern Michigan and Maine.

With a Kp index of 5, these storms occur approximately 1 700 times per solar cycle, spanning about 900 days per cycle.

The probability of solar flares remains low; however, M-class flares (45 – 60%) are possible from January 30 to February 1 due to increased activity in the northeast active regions.

References:

¹ Forecast Discussion – SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on January 30, 2025