Multiple filament eruptions and CMEs observed, none Earth-directed

Solar activity remained low during the 24-hour period ending 00:30 UTC on May 8, according to the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center.

Active region 4079, currently with beta-gamma magnetic configuration, produced the strongest flare of the period, a C4.0 event at 02:52 UTC on May 7. Regions 4081 (beta) and 4082 (beta-gamma) contributed weak C-class flares as well, with minor development noted in their intermediate spot areas.

Solar activity is forecast to be low over the next two days, with a 45% chance of M- and 5% of X-class solar flares.

A total of four filament eruptions were observed on May 6 and 7. A fast, narrow CME was associated with a filament eruption near S20W01 observed at 16:30 UTC on May 6 in SUVI 304 imagery. SOHO LASCO C2 instruments detected the corresponding CME at 16:20 UTC. Analysis indicated the ejecta would pass well south of the Sun-Earth line and should not have any impacts on Earth.

A large-scale filament eruption occurred between 14:45 and 17:00 UTC on May 6 near N45W20. Analysis of SUVI 284 and 304 imagery indicates the bulk of the ejecta will travel north of the ecliptic with no Earth-directed component.

Another filament eruption took place between 09:00 and 10:00 UTC, producing a fast-moving CME detected off the northwest limb at around 09:24 UTC on May 7. As expected, with the trajectory being so far north, analysis indicated a miss well above Earth with no anticipated impacts.

The final eruption in this sequence was observed off the northeast from 11:16 to 13:48 UTC on May 7. LASCO imagery recorded a CME at 11:24 UTC. Preliminary analysis suggests this ejecta will also pass north of Earth, although further analysis is underway.

Solar wind parameters over the past 24 hours indicated continued influence from a negative polarity Coronal Hole High-Speed Stream (CH HSS). Wind speed decreased from approximately 600 km/s to below 450 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 4 and 6 nT, with Bz reaching −5 nT. Phi angle remained predominantly in the negative sector.

Electron flux levels >2 MeV reached high levels during the same period, with a peak of 12 994 pfu. Proton flux >10 MeV remained below the S1 – Minor threshold. Both trends are expected to continue over the next three days.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to unsettled during the same period. Quiet to unsettled conditions are forecast to persist through May 8. G1 -Minor storm conditions are likely on May 9 due to a combination of another CH HSS and a possible glancing blow from a CME launched on May 5.

CH HSS influence is expected to remain on May 10 with unsettled to active conditions likely.