Impact probability for asteroid 2024 YR4 drops to 0.0017%, moon impact at 1.7%
Asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact risk has dropped to 0.0017%, placing it a level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. There remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032.
2024 YR4 orbit diagram as of February 25, 2025. Image credit: ESA
The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.0017 %. Now that there’s only a 1 in 59 000 chance of the asteroid’s impact in 2032, the asteroid has dropped to a level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
According to NASA, there remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 27, 2024. By late January, the impact risk of the asteroid was 1.2%, making it a level 3 on the Torino risk scale, which ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain global catastrophes).
A level 3 classification indicates a close encounter meriting attention, with a probability of impact that could cause localized damage. Historically, asteroids initially rated at this level have often been downgraded as more data became available.
2024 YR4, which was being dubbed the “city-killer,” followed the historical precedent as well — it first rose on the impact risk scale before getting downgraded.
The asteroid, which is estimated to be 40-90 m (130 to 295 feet) in diameter, rose to an impact risk of 1.8% on February 6 and later jumped to 2.6 % on February 18, jumping again to 2.8% on the same day.
This meant the asteroid had surpassed the asteroid Apophis, which peaked at 2.7%, making it a level 4 on the Torino scale. The asteroid’s rising impact risk triggered planetary defense procedures, prompting space agencies to evaluate the potential response strategies.
After peaking at 2.8%, the impact probability began to decrease as astronomers refined their calculations of the object’s trajectory. By February 21, 2024 YR4’s impact probability had dropped to 0.16%, effectively downgrading it to Level 1 on the Torino scale.
References:
1 Latest Calculations Conclude Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Poses No Significant Threat to Earth in 2032 and Beyond – NASA – February 24, 2025
Rishav is a skilled researcher specializing in extreme and severe weather reporting. He combines exceptional research capabilities with scientific precision to deliver clear, data-driven articles. Known for uncovering critical information, Rishav ensures his work is accurate, insightful, and impactful. His passion for both science and literature fuels his dedication to producing high-quality news articles. You can reach him at rishav(at)watchers(.)news.
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