Asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probablity drops to 0.16%
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is making headlines again after new calculations revealed that the asteroid now has an impact probability to Earth of just 0.16% in 2032.
2024 YR4 orbit visualization as of February 21, 2025 Image credit: ESA/NEOCC
Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been making headlines since January as the “city killer,” has finally dropped down on the asteroid impact risk list, with new simulations indicating a significantly lower chance of impact.
According to the European Space Agency’s Planetary Defence Office (PDO), the impact probability of the asteroid has dropped from 2.8% on February 19 to just 0.16 % on February 21.
Meanwhile, NASA is predicting an impact probability of 0.28 % or a 1 in 360 chance of impact based on 391 observations of the asteroid. This means the asteroid is now just a level 1 risk on the Torino scale for asteroid impact risk instead of a level 3, where it was for much of February.
This comes as no surprise as scientists had predicted that the probability would rise before falling down and probably hitting zero as more observational data comes to light.
Astronomers have been using the James Webb Telescope to study the 2024 YR4 in infrared light to obtain an accurate estimate of the asteroid’s size and also to observe the asteroid once it is beyond the limits of ground-based telescopes to provide the final measurements of its orbit until it returns to view in 2028.
References:
1 ESA actively monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 – ESA/PDO – February 21, 2025
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