Heavy rainfall expected across west-central Florida during Fourth of July holiday, tropical development possible
A slow-moving low-pressure system near the Southeast U.S. coast may bring prolonged rainfall and flooding to parts of Florida and the Gulf region over the Fourth of July holiday weekend, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) reporting a 40% chance of tropical or subtropical development over the next seven days.
Convective Weather Outlook for July 4, 2025. Credit: NWS
A slow-moving area of low pressure near the southeast U.S. coast is expected to bring prolonged heavy rainfall and localized flooding risks over the Fourth of July holiday, especially across Florida.
This weather disturbance is developing along a weakening frontal boundary that extends across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and nearby Atlantic waters. While the chance of tropical or subtropical cyclone formation is currently low, near 0% over the next 48 hours, it increases to around 40% within the next week.
Though significant tropical cyclone development is not expected, the main concern comes from the system’s slow movement. Forecasts indicate it will remain nearly stationary, which could result in extended periods of heavy rain over localized areas, particularly along Florida’s west-central coast. This slow progression increases the risk of urban and river flooding due to the accumulation of rainfall over time.
Wind shear, moisture, and sea surface temperatures do not support rapid development. However, the existing frontal boundary could act as a focus for subtropical formation. Subtropical systems typically have broad wind fields and can produce widespread rainfall even without fully developing into tropical cyclones.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed a large portion of Florida under a Level 1 (marginal) flash-flood threat over the next several days. A Level 2 (slight) threat is in effect along Florida’s Gulf Coast on July 3, extending from north of the Tampa area southward through Sarasota. For July 4, the risk is downgraded to Level 1 across much of the peninsula, including the Fort Myers and Naples areas. By July 5 the Level 1 area contracts toward central Florida, and a marginal threat persists along parts of the Gulf Coast into July 6.
Recent weather discussions confirm scattered thunderstorms across the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama, while high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A weak cold front is expected to stall in the northern Gulf by July 3, setting the stage for a low-pressure system to form.
Importantly, the threat of flooding and heavy rain is not tied to whether the system develops into a tropical storm. Regardless of storm classification, heavy rainfall is possible.
References:
1 Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text) – NHC – July 2, 2025
2 Tropical trouble looms off Southeast coast over Fourth of July holiday as Florida braces for flooding rain – FOX Weather – July 1, 2025
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